Fitbit (NYSE: FIT): Don't do it.

Last week’s Fitbit (NYSE: FIT) IPO was…

Hmm, how do I put this?

Kind of scary.

The wearable tech company filed for IPO back in May, and its shares were priced last Wednesday at $20 each, just above its expected $17-$19 range. That earned the company a $4.1 billion valuation.

On its second trading day, shares opened up 20%. By the fourth day, it opened at 90% above the initial IPO price.

This rise is unquestionably driven by hype.

In seven years, the company’s hardware has grown from a single pedometer-style gadget to a wide range of wearable dongles, bracelets, and watch-like devices. It sells millions of devices per year and is one of the leading names in the wearable technology craze.

It’s among the leaders of the wearable tech trend, commanding as much as 72% of the market, and its financials are strong.

Last year, the company reported $745 million in sales and $336 million in the first quarter of 2015 alone. This represented a 209% increase over the same quarter last year. Profits, likewise, rose six times to $48 million.

But Fitbit devices themselves are still very niche products. This IPO is more than a little frothy.

Here’s why…

• Fitbit makes health and fitness products, and the attrition rate of these products is extremely fast. Last year, researchers found that one-third of American consumers who’d bought a wearable product had stopped using it within six months. One in 10 adults who owned a Fitbit-like device had already abandoned it. Fad diets and trendy workouts are often dropped as quickly as they’re adopted. Fitbit is in this category.

• The landscape is completely overrun with competitors, some of whom have the ability to scale much more quickly than Fitbit. Notable competitors include Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Samsung, Garmin (NASDAQ: GRMN), Jawbone, and Adidas.  Fitbit’s entire product line is sourced from a single manufacturer: Flextronics (NASDAQ: FLEX).

• The market for fitness trackers is colliding with the market for smartwatches. Though the form factors are slightly different, their functionality is similar. As a result, the associated “lifestyle” branding is totally different for each. Fitbit is squarely placed in the sports/health/fitness lifestyle.

Heading Fitbit Off at the Pass

Yesterday, Google’s (NASDAQ: GOOG) Life Sciences group revealed its own health-tracking wristband geared for a totally different market: medical research.

Google’s medical-facing health tracker measures the usual biorhythms of the patient including pulse, respiration, and body temperature. It also records ambient data like sound levels, light exposure, ambient temperature, and so forth.

James Park, co-founder and CEO of Fitbit Inc., told Time magazine last March that the next big leap for the company could be into FDA-approved medical devices. He mentioned “cool” blood glucose meters as a particularly open field.

Of course, Google revealed its developments in that area last year with its glucose-sensing contact lenses.

“We’re in discussions with the FDA, but there’s still a lot more work to do to turn this technology into a system that people can use. We’re not going to do this alone: we plan to look for partners who are experts in bringing products like this to market. These partners will use our technology for a smart contact lens and develop apps that would make the measurements available to the wearer and their doctor,” project co-founders Brian Otis and Babak Parviz said in a company blog post.

It would be tough for Fitbit to top Google in terms of coolness and innovation in that respect.

It would also be impossible for Fitbit to sink as much money into R&D as Google does.

Think of it this way: Fitbit’s frothy IPO value was $4 billion… In 2013, Google spent $8 billion on research alone.

Good Investing,

Tim Conneally

 @TimConneally on Twitter

For the last seven years, Tim Conneally has covered the world of mobile and wireless technology, enterprise software, network hardware, and next generation consumer technology. Tim has previously written for long-running software news outlet Betanews and for financial media powerhouse Forbes.