How to Reap Profits From the Replicator

Whether they’re providing reconnaissance and targeting information for Ukrainian ground forces, or carrying out kamikaze-style attacks on Russian assets, drones have been a massive force multiplier.

The world has seen that, which has translated into greater demand for AeroVironment’s products and contract awards, which continue to accrue far beyond the roughly $200 million the company has already received from supplying Ukraine.

However, AeroVironment’s success is just a small part of the bigger picture. 

Indeed, this isn’t just the story of one company…

It’s the story of a cutting-edge war-fighting trend that has caused the Pentagon to rethink its entire strategy…

The complete restructuring of our military-industrial complex…

And a desperate bid to keep pace with our fiercest global rival.

So let’s take a closer look at exactly what’s going on…

Killing It

As I said, the evolving nature of drone warfare has been one of the biggest stories of the Ukraine invasion. 

Ukraine is reportedly burning through 10,000 drones each month.

While many are shot down or disabled, their numbers can often overwhelm enemy defenses with at least a few slipping through. 

Some have even made it as far as Moscow, where they’ve crashed into government buildings or key infrastructure nodes like the 12-mile-long, $4 billion Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea to mainland Russia.

In just one recent week of fighting, the Ukrainian military said its drones took out 205 Russian assets — including 64 heavy guns, 27 tanks, 55 trucks, 38 armored combat vehicles, and three pieces of radio equipment.

In addition to taking out artillery, tanks, and trucks, Ukrainian drones have also been used to sink or decommission large ships in Russia’s Black Sea fleet and neutralize fighter jets idling in airfields.

Indeed, the commander of one Ukrainian drone outfit estimates that with just $700,000 of equipment, his unit has destroyed more than $80 million worth of Russian weaponry.

However, sophisticated weapons systems are really just a small part of this effort. 

In most cases, the drones Ukrainian forces deploy are cheap commercial units that they’ve modified or re-engineered into war-fighting machines. 

And most of them are coming from China.

In fact, China is making a mint by playing both sides — sending millions of dollars in drones to both Ukraine and Russia.

And it can do that because it’s home to the world’s biggest drone manufacturer, DJI — a Shenzhen-based company that’s been blacklisted by the U.S. Department of Commerce since 2020.

DJI has cornered about 70% of the global consumer drone market and accounts for more than half the drones sold in the U.S. 

It’s accomplished this by leveraging government subsidies to sell its products for as little as $2,000 a piece. 

By comparison, other drones start at about $50,000 and go up from there. 

China also accounts for a huge portion of the drone supply chain, which also helps keep costs down. 

Thus, DJI has been able to exploit its pricing leverage to gain dominance. 

The company’s drones are so pervasive, in fact, that they’re even used by the FBI and DHS. 

And that’s a problem. 

We all know China can’t be trusted. And in the event of a war (over Taiwan, for instance) we absolutely cannot count on China as a supplier.

Back in 2022, Congress tried to ban federal agencies from buying or using Chinese drones, but Beijing successfully employed two lobbying firms to sink that effort. 

However, China also put new export controls on its drone and drone equipment in August after the U.S. tightened trade restrictions on high-end chips and chip-making equipment.

So, again, China is not a reliable partner.

What, then, is the United States to do?

How can we compete with China’s manufacturing base?

Well, that’s exactly the question a new, highly secretive Pentagon program aims to answer.

It’s called “Replicator.”

The Replicator

The overarching goal of Replicator is to mass-produce thousands upon thousands of attritable unmanned systems. 

To achieve that goal, the Pentagon will partner with drone companies throughout the country, and specifically Silicon Valley, to leverage all forms of commercial technology from robotics to AI.

And (optimistically) it wants to achieve this in 18–24 months.

It’s such a high priority that Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said she will personally oversee the effort, along with the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Christopher Grady.

“To be clear, America still benefits from platforms that are large, exquisite, expensive, and few,” Hicks said. “But Replicator will galvanize progress in the too-slow shift of U.S. military innovation to leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap, and many.” 

Furthermore, if the military is able to successfully build from scratch an entirely new chain of drone production…

Then it aims to apply the lessons learned to more industries going forward. 

That makes the drone effort “Replicator One” — the first in a potential series of initiatives to improve and expand America’s defense industrial complex. 

Of course, it won’t be easy — and there are a few reasons why.

For one thing, while U.S. drone manufacturers could theoretically match China’s output, they won’t be able to match its prices. 

They simply can’t compete with China’s government funding and cheap labor pool.

And secondly, China still controls the supply chain. 

Here’s how Michael MacKay, national security advisor to Iowa Sen. Jodi Ernst put it:

The fact of the matter is we don’t have an industrial base to do this. If China shut off the hose tomorrow, we don’t have the carbon fibers; we don’t have the micro-electronics; we don’t have the chips; we don’t have the motors to be able at this point to provide thousands [of small drones] at scale. 

Again, that’s true. But it’s also the problem Replicator was created to fix. 

It’s not going to happen overnight, but this is the first step — a brand-new conduit between Silicon Valley and the Pentagon.

To that end, the House of Representatives has proposed a $1 billion fund for the Defense Innovation Unit to kickstart the initiative.

That’s gotten the industry’s attention. 

Add to that rising global defense budgets, a war in Ukraine that’s showcased the tactical advantages of drones, and rising commercial demand…

And suddenly our domestic drone industry has plenty of reason for optimism.

The important thing is to just stick with the plan. 

Because if the Pentagon stays serious about drone warfare (and there’s every reason to believe it will), then many of our country’s smaller drone companies will have the assurance and long-term commitments they need to build out their manufacturing base and reduce costs.

“Drones used to be toys. Now everyone’s realizing how important they are,” Jeff Thompson, founder of Salt Lake City-based drone-maker Red Cat, told The Washington Post.“It’s very compelling. I hope we’re in there.”

Thompson himself just got back from Ukraine, where Red Cat’s drones are already being deployed. And the company is now in the process of selling its consumer division, which manufactures in China. 

Going forward, all of Red Cat’s manufacturing will take place at a new factory in Salt Lake City, which began production in September. 

That factory is already capable of producing thousands of drones a month with fewer than 100 workers. 

And while its drones currently cost upward of $14,800, that price could be lowered with larger-scale production.

In any case, as a matter of national security, the United States absolutely must forge its own drone supply chain — one that’s as efficient as China’s and yet wholly separate from it.

And if you want to learn about the companies in the best position to profit from the program check out Secret Stock Files here.

Fight on,

Jason Simpkins

Simpkins is the founder and editor of Secret Stock Files, an investment service that focuses on companies with assets — tangible resources and products that can hold and appreciate in value. He covers mining companies, energy companies, defense contractors, dividend payers, commodities, staples, legacies and more…

In 2023 he joined The Wealth Advisory team as a defense market analyst where he reviews and recommends new military and government opportunities that come across his radar, especially those that spin-off healthy, growing income streams. For more on Jason, check out his editor’s page.

Be sure to visit our Angel Investment Research channel on YouTube and tune into Jason’s podcasts.

Want to hear more from Jason? Sign up to receive emails directly from him ranging from market commentaries to opportunities that he has his eye on. 

@OCSimpkins on Twitter