Snow in New Orleans? -40°F in Chicago? Sleet in Houston?
Curse you, polar vortex!
Schools across the Midwest are closed. 3,000 flights were canceled. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency.
And I now get to tell my children, “When I was a kid, we went to school when it was cold.”
They don’t think that’s very funny…
At least the weather will warm up a little for the Super Bowl this weekend. But then we’re supposed to go right back into the vortex next week.
If you live in the Northeast and heat your home with natural gas, let me offer my condolences now. Those bills will be killer…
Natural gas futures for February traded as high as $5.40 per Mcf (thousand cubic feet) yesterday. In mid-November, this same contract sold for $3.50.
But that’s nothing…
Prices have gone as high as $120 per Mcf on the spot market recently. Last week, a nuclear plant here in Maryland shut down when snow and ice caused an electrical problem. Power companies had to turn to natural gas, and they got gouged — big time.
Other price spikes of $56.59 and $72.43 were reported.
And the prices could have been worse given that power companies can’t just shut down…
Flush to Flat
For the last few years, we’ve had too much natural gas. So much gas came on the market that prices fell to under $2 per Mcf. And companies that had invested heavily had to keep bringing more gas to market just so they could pay the bills.
Bigger companies started to shut in production and sell off wells at a loss just to raise cash that could get reinvested in oil.
Still, storage facilities were brimming with natural gas — until the polar vortex showed up…
Supplies are already down 20% from where they were a year ago. And the record for use was set just a couple weeks ago, on January 7.
The problem is the cold weather is affecting production. Companies aren’t pumping enough to offset demand, so supplies are falling.
As you can see in the chart above from the EIA, record amounts of natural gas are being pulled out of storage.
This is a sea change for the fuel. We may be entering a new pricing environment for natural gas (and natural gas stocks), and here’s why…
Bull Market for Gas
Last year at this time, there was about 3 Tcf (trillion cubic feet) of natural gas in storage. This year, we have 2.4 Tcf — 600 Bcf less.
Now, last year between February and April, we used 1.35 Tcf. By mid-March, there was 1.7 Tcf in storage. That’s in line with 5-year averages.
This year, it’s going to be different.
If companies continue to struggle to replenish supplies and demand continues to surge, we could end the winter season with 1.1 Tcf of gas in storage — or less. That hasn’t happened since 2003.
You may be surprised to hear this, but we don’t use significantly more gas in America than we did 10 years ago. That will change in time as we see more natural gas powering fleet vehicles, trains, and power plants.
But right now, it’s looking highly likely that we will go into the summer months with a 10-year low of natural gas supply. And when supply is low, prices tend to go up…
You could buy some Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK). The company is in much better shape today than it was five years ago, and the forward P/E of 12 is fine. I actually just bought some call options on it the other day.
Until next time,
Until next time,
Briton Ryle
@BritonRyle on Twitter
The Wealth Advisory on Youtube
The Wealth Advisory on Facebook
A 21-year veteran of the newsletter business, Briton Ryle is the editor of The Wealth Advisory income stock newsletter, with a focus on top-quality dividend growth stocks and REITs. Briton also manages the Real Income Trader advisory service, where his readers take regular cash payouts using a low-risk covered call option strategy. He is also the managing editor of the Wealth Daily e-letter. To learn more about Briton, click here.
