The NATO Summit Was a Profit Bombshell

I know a NATO Summit might sound like a bit of a snooze-fest to a lot of people, but this is the kind of stuff I live for. 

The annual defense-industrial complex summit always provides a nice boon to defense contractors, and this one — the 75th anniversary of the NATO alliance — was no different.

In fact, there were some key developments that made me really optimistic about the fortunes of defense-related holdings — though not so much the fate of the world at large.

The main takeaway was that support for Ukraine isn’t going anywhere — regardless of who wins November’s election.

Yes, it’s been 2½ years since Russia invaded Ukraine and I know a lot of you are probably sick of it. 

I was talking to a friend this week and his insight was uncompromising. 

“I just don’t care,” he said. “Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union when I was growing up. So what if it gets taken over by Russia again.”

I cannot argue with that. It’s perfectly reasonable. But you know where I stand. 

As I’ve made clear, I do care. 

I think it’d be wrong to sit idly by while a murderous dictator notorious for assassinating political opponents and throwing dissidents and journalists out of windows invades his neighbor, kidnaps thousands of children, mass-murders even more civilians in a crime against humanity, and threatens the entire planet with a nuclear holocaust if anyone dares oppose him…

All because that neighboring country chose democracy and trade ties with Europe over a return to the old Soviet Union. 

Of course, it doesn’t matter what I think. What matters is what Europe thinks. And Europe thinks this a full-blown crisis that demands a thorough and unwavering response. 

So while U.S. support may well be washed away by apathy and immediately abandoned the second Donald Trump takes office (presuming he prevails against the meandering mummified corpse of our current president) Europe remains committed to keeping up the fight.

As it should be. 

To that end, NATO is working to establish a new program to provide reliable military aid to Ukraine and help it get ready to join the alliance — with or without future U.S. support.

NATO intends to provide at least $43.3 billion in aid to Ukraine in the next year — money that will be used to develop and train forces, plan and coordinate allied contributions, and repair and maintain equipment.

More crucially, though, the new program will bring Ukraine’s military in line with conduct, training, and weapons standards necessary to one day join the alliance.

Bringing the support program under the NATO umbrella will help mitigate  the damage of a U.S. withdrawal. 

More importantly, as the group said in a joint statement, it puts Ukraine on an “irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.”

The fact that Ukraine is drawing closer to NATO membership rather than further from it will infuriate Vladimir Putin and ensure that the conflict continues. 

But that’s not all. 

NATO Spending Is Set to Explode

The fact that U.S. support for Ukraine and the world’s most powerful alliance rests on the reelection of a Walking Dead extra is not lost on Europe. 

The continents’ leaders recognize that if they’re going to have any shot at all of bringing Russia to heel, they’ll need to raise their defense budgets to levels not seen since WWII. 

This has been obvious for quite some time, of course. 

NATO’s European flank started getting serious about defense spending back in 2014 when Russia first seized Crimea. 

That effort intensified under the relentless badgering of the first Trump administration. 

It kicked into an even higher gear when Putin went full-Hitler on Ukraine in 2022. 

And now the prospect of total American abandonment figures to send defense spending in Europe to a whole new level. 

Indeed, a record 23 of 32 NATO members are set to clear the alliance’s 2% of GDP spending guidance this year.  

That’s up from just three in 2014, but that’s still not enough. Especially for the countries nearest to Russia. 

Former victims of Soviet aggression — countries like Poland, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc. — are rightfully concerned that if Russia conquers Ukraine, they’ll be next. So they’re pushing to raise the defense spending guidance from 2% to as much as 3%.

And that’s at minimum. In reality, some countries will have to go even higher than that.

“When we analyze what the countries need to develop in the near future, for a decade maybe, it’s not even 2.5%,” Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurynas Kasčiūnas told Defense News. “It’s not even 3%. It should be more if you want more air defense systems, if you want more long-range strike capabilities.”

One percent may not seem like much, but NATO collectively is set to spend more than $1 trillion on defense this year. Most of that comes from the United States, but it’s also because Europe has doubled its defense expenditure in the past 10 years. 

Just look at the trajectory it’s on in this chart…

That’s going to continue — and defense contractors are going to profit even more than they already are. 

We’re talking about companies like Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT), RTX (NYSE: RTX), and General Dynamics (NYSE: GD). But we’re also talking about smaller defense technology suppliers that tend to fly under the radar.

Like this one — an AI company that’s already active in both Ukraine and Israel. 

It’s companies like this that are going to profit from Europe’s new approach to collective defense.

And if the U.S. election stays on its current trajectory, you can bet that Donald Trump will bring the United States its first trillion-dollar defense budget and leave Europe scrambling to ramp up defense spending more than it already is.

Fight on,

Jason Simpkins

Simpkins is the founder and editor of Secret Stock Files, an investment service that focuses on companies with assets — tangible resources and products that can hold and appreciate in value. He covers mining companies, energy companies, defense contractors, dividend payers, commodities, staples, legacies and more…

In 2023 he joined The Wealth Advisory team as a defense market analyst where he reviews and recommends new military and government opportunities that come across his radar, especially those that spin-off healthy, growing income streams. For more on Jason, check out his editor’s page.

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